The November 2022 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska was held on Tuesday, November 8, to elect a member of the United States House of Representatives to represent the state of Alaska.
Democratic incumbent Mary Peltola won reelection to a full term in office, defeating Republicans Sarah Palin and Nick Begich III and Libertarian Chris Bye in the runoff count.
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Peltola: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Palin: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | |||||||||||||||||||||
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This was the second race in Alaska held under the 2020 Measure 2 election procedure, after year's special election. All candidates ran in a nonpartisan blanket top-four primary with each voter casting a single vote. Mary Peltola, Sarah Palin, Nick Begich III, and Chris Bye advanced to the runoff.
Under the rules of instant-runoff, Bye and Begich were eliminated in the first and second rounds, after they received the fewest votes; Palin received support from 66.8% of Begich's voters after he was eliminated. However, this was not enough to defeat Peltola, who went on to win with 55% of the vote.
Peltola's final-round vote share of 55% was the best performance for a statewide Democratic candidate in Alaska since the 1974 Senate race and the best performance for any statewide candidate in the state since the 2012 House race. Peltola was one of only five House Democrats in the 2022 midterm elections who won a district that Donald Trump carried in the 2020 presidential election; she outran Joe Biden's vote share by more than 20%, the highest overperformance of any House Democrat in the midterms.
Although Peltola's more-convincing margin of victory suggests that the pathological behavior of the special election was not repeated, election scientists noted that the early elimination of Begich and the opaque ballot-counting process created some uncertainty about the majority choice candidate, who may have been Begich, Peltola, or neither.
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Mary Peltola | 70,295 | 36.80 | |
Republican | Sarah Palin | 57,693 | 30.20 | |
Republican | Nick Begich III | 50,021 | 26.19 | |
Republican | Tara Sweeney (withdrew) | 7,195 | 3.77 | |
Libertarian | Chris Bye | 1,189 | 0.62 | |
Libertarian | J. R. Myers | 531 | 0.28 | |
Republican | Bob Lyons | 447 | 0.23 | |
Republican | Jay Armstrong | 403 | 0.21 | |
Republican | Brad Snowden | 355 | 0.19 | |
Republican | Randy Purham | 311 | 0.16 | |
Independent | Lady Donna Dutchess | 270 | 0.14 | |
Independent | Sherry Strizak | 252 | 0.13 | |
American Independent | Robert Ornelas | 248 | 0.13 | |
Republican | Denise Williams | 242 | 0.13 | |
Independent | Gregg Brelsford | 241 | 0.13 | |
Independent | David Hughes | 238 | 0.12 | |
Independent | Andrew Phelps | 222 | 0.12 | |
Independent | Tremayne Wilson | 194 | 0.10 | |
Independent | Sherry Mettler | 191 | 0.10 | |
Independent | Silvio Pellegrini | 187 | 0.10 | |
Independent | Ted Heintz | 173 | 0.09 | |
Independent | Davis LeBlanc | 117 | 0.06 | |
Total votes | 191,015 | 100.00 |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report | Lean D | November 1, 2022 |
Inside Elections | Lean D | November 3, 2022 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean D | November 2, 2022 |
Politico | Lean D | October 26, 2022 |
RCP | Tossup | November 3, 2022 |
Fox News | Lean D | November 1, 2022 |
DDHQ | Lean D | November 8, 2022 |
FiveThirtyEight | Tossup | November 3, 2022 |
The Economist | Lean D | November 2, 2022 |
As of September 2022, there had been one debate featuring the general election candidates.
A little over an hour before election results came in for the final round of the 2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special election, a debate was held for candidates of this house seat. All four candidates were included in the debate.
No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Participants | |||
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P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | ||||||||
Nick Begich III | Chris Bye | Sarah Palin | Mary Peltola | |||||
1 | August 31, 2022 | Alaska Oil and Gas Association | Dave Karp | YouTube | P | P | P | P |
2 | October 4, 2022 | Kodiak Chamber of Commerce/KMXT (FM) | Dan Rohr | [1] | P | P | P | P |
3 | October 10, 2022 | Anchorage Chamber of Commerce | Julie Hasquet | YouTube | P | P | A | P |
4 | October 21, 2022 | Alaska Federation of Natives | P | P | P | P | ||
5 | October 26, 2022 | Alaska Public Media/Alaska's News Source | Lori Townsend, Mike Ross | YouTube | P | P | P | P |
State legislators
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | RCV count | Mary Peltola (D) | Sarah Palin (R) | Nick Begich (R) | Chris Bye (L) | Undecided / Not Ranked / Other |
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Dittman Research | November 2–3, 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | ||||||
1 | 48% | 25% | 23% | 3% | 1% U 1% O | ||||
2 | 49% | 26% | 25% | Elim | — | ||||
3 | 56% | 44% | Elim | Elim | — | ||||
Alaska Survey Research | October 19–22, 2022 | 1,276 (LV) | ± 3.0% | ||||||
1 | 49% | 26% | 21% | 5% | — | ||||
2 | 51% | 27% | 22% | Elim | — | ||||
3 | 57% | 43% | Elim | Elim | — | ||||
3* | 56% | Elim | 44% | Elim | — | ||||
Dittman Research | October 4–8, 2022 | 411 (LV) | ± 4.8% | ||||||
1 | 45% | 23% | 28% | 3% | — | ||||
2 | 46% | 24% | 30% | Elim | — | ||||
3 | 52% | Elim | 48% | Elim | — | ||||
Alaska Survey Research | September 25–27, 2022 | 1,282 (LV) | ± 3.0% | ||||||
1 | 49% | 23% | 26% | 2% | — | ||||
2 | 50% | 24% | 26% | Elim | — | ||||
3 | 54% | Elim | 46% | Elim | — | ||||
3* | 56% | 44% | Elim | Elim | — | ||||
Dittman Research | September 6–14, 2022 | 394 (LV) | ± 4.9% | ||||||
1 | 50% | 27% | 20% | 3% | 1% U 1% O | ||||
2 | 51% | 28% | 21% | Elim | — | ||||
3 | 58% | 42% | Elim | Elim | — | ||||
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) | September 6–11, 2022 | 1,050 (LV) | N/A | 45% | 30% | 20% | 2% | 3% U | |
1 | 46% | 31% | 20% | 2% | 3% NR | ||||
2 | 47% | 32% | 21% | Elim | 4% NR | ||||
3 | 53% | 47% | Elim | Elim | 10% NR |
Party | Candidate | First choice | Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | ||||||||
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Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | |||
Democratic | Mary Peltola (incumbent) | 128,553 | 48.77% | +202 | 128,755 | 48.66% | +1,031 | 129,786 | 49.22% | +7,477 | 137,263 | 54.96% | |
Republican | Sarah Palin | 67,866 | 25.74% | +464 | 68,330 | 25.82% | +1,069 | 69,399 | 26.32% | +43,072 | 112,471 | 45.04% | |
Republican | Nick Begich III | 61,513 | 23.33% | +992 | 62,505 | 23.62% | +1,994 | 64,499 | 24.46% | -64,499 | Eliminated | ||
Libertarian | Chris Bye | 4,570 | 1.73% | +429 | 4,999 | 1.89% | -4,999 | Eliminated | |||||
Write-in | 1,108 | 0.42% | -1,108 | Eliminated | |||||||||
Total votes | 263,610 | 264,589 | 263,684 | 249,734 | |||||||||
Blank or inactive ballots | 2,208 | +905 | 3,113 | +13,950 | 17,063 | ||||||||
Democratic hold |
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