2022 United States House Of Representatives Election In Alaska

The November 2022 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska was held on Tuesday, November 8, to elect a member of the United States House of Representatives to represent the state of Alaska.

Democratic incumbent Mary Peltola won reelection to a full term in office, defeating Republicans Sarah Palin and Nick Begich III and Libertarian Chris Bye in the runoff count.

2022 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska's at-large district
2022 United States House Of Representatives Election In Alaska
← 2022 (special) November 8, 2022 2024 →
  2022 United States House Of Representatives Election In Alaska 2022 United States House Of Representatives Election In Alaska 2022 United States House Of Representatives Election In Alaska
Candidate Mary Peltola Sarah Palin Nick Begich III
Party Democratic Republican Republican
First round 128,553
48.77%
67,866
25.74%
61,513
23.33%
Maximum round 137,263
54.96%
112,471
45.04%
Eliminated

2022 United States House Of Representatives Election In Alaska
2022 United States House Of Representatives Election In Alaska
2022 United States House Of Representatives Election In Alaska
Peltola:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Palin:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

U.S. Representative before election

Mary Peltola
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

Mary Peltola
Democratic

This was the second race in Alaska held under the 2020 Measure 2 election procedure, after year's special election. All candidates ran in a nonpartisan blanket top-four primary with each voter casting a single vote. Mary Peltola, Sarah Palin, Nick Begich III, and Chris Bye advanced to the runoff.

Under the rules of instant-runoff, Bye and Begich were eliminated in the first and second rounds, after they received the fewest votes; Palin received support from 66.8% of Begich's voters after he was eliminated. However, this was not enough to defeat Peltola, who went on to win with 55% of the vote.

Peltola's final-round vote share of 55% was the best performance for a statewide Democratic candidate in Alaska since the 1974 Senate race and the best performance for any statewide candidate in the state since the 2012 House race. Peltola was one of only five House Democrats in the 2022 midterm elections who won a district that Donald Trump carried in the 2020 presidential election; she outran Joe Biden's vote share by more than 20%, the highest overperformance of any House Democrat in the midterms.

Although Peltola's more-convincing margin of victory suggests that the pathological behavior of the special election was not repeated, election scientists noted that the early elimination of Begich and the opaque ballot-counting process created some uncertainty about the majority choice candidate, who may have been Begich, Peltola, or neither.

Primary election

Democratic Party

Advanced to general

Withdrew

Declined

Republican Party

Advanced to general

Withdrew after advancing to general

Eliminated in primary

  • Jay Armstrong
  • Robert "Bob" Lyons, case manager
  • Randy Purham, businessman and U.S. Army veteran
  • Brad Snowden
  • Denise Williams

Withdrawn

Declined

Libertarian Party

Advanced to general

  • Chris Bye, fishing guide

Eliminated in primary

Alaskan Independence Party

Declined

American Independent Party

Eliminated in primary

  • Robert Ornelas, pastor and perennial candidate

Independents

Eliminated in primary

  • Gregg Brelsford, lawyer and former Bristol Bay Borough manager
  • Lady Donna Dutchess, judicial reform activist
  • Ted Heintz
  • David Hughes
  • David LeBlanc
  • Sherry Mettler
  • Silvio Pellegrini, businessman
  • Andrew Phelps
  • Sherry Strizak
  • Tremayne Wilson

Withdrawn

Declined

Results

Primary election results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Mary Peltola 70,295 36.80
Republican Sarah Palin 57,693 30.20
Republican Nick Begich III 50,021 26.19
Republican Tara Sweeney (withdrew) 7,195 3.77
Libertarian Chris Bye 1,189 0.62
Libertarian J. R. Myers 531 0.28
Republican Bob Lyons 447 0.23
Republican Jay Armstrong 403 0.21
Republican Brad Snowden 355 0.19
Republican Randy Purham 311 0.16
Independent Lady Donna Dutchess 270 0.14
Independent Sherry Strizak 252 0.13
American Independent Robert Ornelas 248 0.13
Republican Denise Williams 242 0.13
Independent Gregg Brelsford 241 0.13
Independent David Hughes 238 0.12
Independent Andrew Phelps 222 0.12
Independent Tremayne Wilson 194 0.10
Independent Sherry Mettler 191 0.10
Independent Silvio Pellegrini 187 0.10
Independent Ted Heintz 173 0.09
Independent Davis LeBlanc 117 0.06
Total votes 191,015 100.00

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report Lean D November 1, 2022
Inside Elections Lean D November 3, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball Lean D November 2, 2022
Politico Lean D October 26, 2022
RCP Tossup November 3, 2022
Fox News Lean D November 1, 2022
DDHQ Lean D November 8, 2022
FiveThirtyEight Tossup November 3, 2022
The Economist Lean D November 2, 2022

Debates and forums

As of September 2022, there had been one debate featuring the general election candidates.

A little over an hour before election results came in for the final round of the 2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special election, a debate was held for candidates of this house seat. All four candidates were included in the debate.

2022 Alaska U.S. Representative debates
No. Date Host Moderator Link Participants
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee W  Withdrawn
Nick Begich III Chris Bye Sarah Palin Mary Peltola
1 August 31, 2022 Alaska Oil and Gas Association Dave Karp YouTube P P P P
2 October 4, 2022 Kodiak Chamber of Commerce/KMXT (FM) Dan Rohr [1] P P P P
3 October 10, 2022 Anchorage Chamber of Commerce Julie Hasquet YouTube P P A P
4 October 21, 2022 Alaska Federation of Natives P P P P
5 October 26, 2022 Alaska Public Media/Alaska's News Source Lori Townsend, Mike Ross YouTube P P P P

Endorsements

Nick Begich III (R)
    State legislators
    Local officials
    Individuals
    Organizations
Chris Bye (L)
Sarah Palin (R)
Al Gross (I) (withdrawn)
    State officials
    State legislators
    Local officials
    Organizations
Mary Peltola (D)
    U.S. senators

State legislators

    Local officials
    Individuals
    Labor unions
    Organizations
Josh Revak (R) (withdrawn)
    Individuals
  • Anne Garland Young, widow of former U.S. Representative Don Young
Tara Sweeney (R) (withdrawn)
    Executive branch officials
    State officials
    Individuals
    Organizations
  • ANCSA Regional Association
Declined to endorse
    State legislators

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
RCV
count
Mary
Peltola
(D)
Sarah
Palin
(R)
Nick
Begich
(R)
Chris
Bye
(L)
Undecided /
Not Ranked /
Other
Dittman Research November 2–3, 2022 400 (LV) ± 4.9%
1 48% 25% 23% 3% 1% U
1% O
2 49% 26% 25% Elim
3 56% 44% Elim Elim
Alaska Survey Research October 19–22, 2022 1,276 (LV) ± 3.0%
1 49% 26% 21% 5%
2 51% 27% 22% Elim
3 57% 43% Elim Elim
3* 56% Elim 44% Elim
Dittman Research October 4–8, 2022 411 (LV) ± 4.8%
1 45% 23% 28% 3%
2 46% 24% 30% Elim
3 52% Elim 48% Elim
Alaska Survey Research September 25–27, 2022 1,282 (LV) ± 3.0%
1 49% 23% 26% 2%
2 50% 24% 26% Elim
3 54% Elim 46% Elim
3* 56% 44% Elim Elim
Dittman Research September 6–14, 2022 394 (LV) ± 4.9%
1 50% 27% 20% 3% 1% U
1% O
2 51% 28% 21% Elim
3 58% 42% Elim Elim
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) September 6–11, 2022 1,050 (LV) N/A 45% 30% 20% 2% 3% U
1 46% 31% 20% 2% 3% NR
2 47% 32% 21% Elim 4% NR
3 53% 47% Elim Elim 10% NR
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
RCV
count
Nick
Begich
(R)
Sarah
Palin
(R)
Mary
Peltola
(D)
Tara
Sweeney
(R)
Undecided
Alaska Survey Research July 20–25, 2022 1,253 (LV) ± 3.0% 1 26% 27% 39% 8%
2 29% 29% 42% Elim
3 54% Elim 46% Elim
3* Elim 48% 53% Elim
Alaska Survey Research July 2–5, 2022 1,201 (LV) ± 2.9% 1 27% 27% 38% 8%
2 31% 29% 41% Elim
3 56% Elim 44% Elim

Results

2022 United States House Of Representatives Election In Alaska 
Preference flow
2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district election
Party Candidate First choice Round 1 Round 2 Round 3
Votes % Transfer Votes % Transfer Votes % Transfer Votes %
Democratic Mary Peltola (incumbent) 128,553 48.77% +202 128,755 48.66% +1,031 129,786 49.22% +7,477 137,263 54.96%
Republican Sarah Palin 67,866 25.74% +464 68,330 25.82% +1,069 69,399 26.32% +43,072 112,471 45.04%
Republican Nick Begich III 61,513 23.33% +992 62,505 23.62% +1,994 64,499 24.46% -64,499 Eliminated
Libertarian Chris Bye 4,570 1.73% +429 4,999 1.89% -4,999 Eliminated
Write-in 1,108 0.42% -1,108 Eliminated
Total votes 263,610 264,589 263,684 249,734
Blank or inactive ballots 2,208 +905 3,113 +13,950 17,063
Democratic hold

See also

Notes

References

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