2014 United States Senate Election In New Hampshire
The 2014 United States Senate election in New Hampshire was held on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of New Hampshire, concurrently with the election of the governor of New Hampshire, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
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  Shaheen: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Brown: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% >90% No Vote: | |||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen ran for re-election to a second term in office. Primary elections were held on September 9, 2014. Shaheen was unopposed for the Democratic nomination and the Republicans nominated former U.S. Senator Scott Brown, who represented Massachusetts from 2010 to 2013.
Brown sought to become only the third person in history and the first in 135 years to represent more than one state in the United States Senate. Waitman T. Willey represented Virginia from 1861 to 1863 and West Virginia from 1863 to 1871 and James Shields represented Illinois from 1849 to 1855, Minnesota from 1858 to 1859 and Missouri in 1879.
Shaheen defeated Brown by 51.5% to 48.2%, making him the first man to lose two Senate races to women, as he had lost his 2012 reelection bid in Massachusetts to Elizabeth Warren. Shaheen became the second Democrat from New Hampshire to be reelected to the Senate and the first since Thomas J. McIntyre in 1972.
Democratic primary
Shaheen was unopposed for the Democratic nomination.
Candidates
Declared
- Jeanne Shaheen, incumbent U.S. Senator
Endorsements
Jeanne Shaheen
Individuals
- Hillary Clinton, 67th United States Secretary of State and candidate for President in 2008
- Angus King, U.S. Senator (I-ME)
- Elizabeth Warren, U.S. Senator (D-MA)
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Jeanne Shaheen (incumbent) | 74,504 | 100.00% | |
Republican primary
The Republican primary for this election was much more highly contested than the respective Democratic one, with Scott Brown beating out Jim Rubens and Bob Smith for the Republican nomination.
Candidates
Declared
- Gerard Beloin, candidate for New Hampshire's 2nd congressional district in 2012 and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010
- Scott Brown, former U.S. Senator from Massachusetts
- Robert D'Arcy
- Miroslaw "Miro" Dziedzic, candidate for New Hampshire's 2nd congressional district in 2012
- Mark W. Farnham, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 1992
- Bob Heghmann
- Walter W. Kelly
- Andy Martin, perennial candidate
- Jim Rubens, Chairman of the Granite State Coalition Against Expanded Gambling, former state senator and candidate for Governor in 1998
- Bob Smith, former U.S. Senator, and candidate for President in 2000
Withdrew
Declined
- Richard Ashooh, candidate for New Hampshire's 1st congressional district in 2010
- Al Baldasaro, state representative
- Charles Bass, former U.S. Representative
- Bill Binnie, industrialist, investment banker and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010
- Jeb Bradley, Majority Leader of the New Hampshire Senate and former U.S. Representative
- David M. Cote, Chairman and CEO of Honeywell
- Judd Gregg, former U.S. Senator and former governor of New Hampshire
- Frank Guinta, former U.S. Representative (ran for NH-01)
- Daniel Innis, Dean of the Peter T. Paul College of Business and Economics at the University of New Hampshire (ran for NH-01)
- Ovide Lamontagne, businessman, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010 and nominee for Governor in 1996 and 2012
- Andy Sanborn, state senator
- Mark Steyn, conservative author and political commentator
- Chris Sununu, executive councillor, son of former governor John H. Sununu and brother of former U.S. Senator John E. Sununu (ran for re-election)
- John E. Sununu, former U.S. Senator
- Fred Tausch, businessman
- Fran Wendelboe, former state representative and candidate for New Hampshire's 1st congressional district in 2002
Endorsements
Scott Brown
Individuals
- Nancy Stiles, state senator
- Kelly Ayotte, U.S. Senator (R-NH)
- Craig Benson, former governor
- Steve Merrill, former governor
- John H. Sununu, former governor
- Jeb Bradley, state senator
- Mitt Romney, former governor of Massachusetts, 2012 Republican nominee for President of the United States
Bob Smith
Individuals
- Karen Testerman, conservative activist, candidate for Governor in 2010 and former candidate for U.S. Senate
Jim Rubens
Individuals
- Gordon Humphrey, Former U.S. Senator (R-NH)
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Charles Bass | Scott Brown | Andy Martin | Jim Rubens | Bob Smith | Karen Testerman | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England College | October 7–9, 2013 | 424 | ± 4.56% | 21% | 47% | — | 5% | — | 4% | — | 23% |
| Public Policy Polling | January 9–12, 2014 | 528 | ± 4.3% | — | 42% | 11% | 8% | 11% | 7% | — | 22% |
| — | — | 4% | 12% | 26% | 10% | — | 47% | ||||
| Gravis Marketing | January 29–30, 2014 | 498 | ± 4.3% | — | 51% | — | — | 22% | — | — | 27% |
| Suffolk/Boston Herald | February 27 – March 5, 2014 | 426 | ± 4.8% | — | 33.33% | 0.7% | 3.05% | 11.97% | 3.29% | — | 47.65% |
| Vox Populi Polling | May 14–15, 2014 | ? | ± 5.2% | — | 38% | — | 9% | 13% | 8% | — | 32% |
| Suffolk/Boston Herald Archived June 20, 2014, at the Wayback Machine | June 14–18, 2014 | 419 | ± 4.8% | — | 40.33% | 0.24% | 3.58% | 12.17% | — | 2.88% | 40.81% |
| NBC/Marist | July 7–13, 2014 | 1,342 | ± 2.7% | — | 61% | — | 10% | 16% | — | 1% | 12% |
Results
Brown
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Scott Brown | 58,775 | 49.86% | |
| Republican | Jim Rubens | 27,089 | 22.98% | |
| Republican | Bob Smith | 26,593 | 22.56% | |
| Republican | Walter W. Kelly | 1,376 | 1.17% | |
| Republican | Bob Heghmann | 784 | 0.67% | |
| Republican | Andy Martin | 734 | 0.62% | |
| Republican | Mark W. Farnham | 733 | 0.62% | |
| Republican | Miroslaw "Miro" Dziedzic | 508 | 0.43% | |
| Republican | Gerard Beloin | 492 | 0.42% | |
| Republican | Robert D'Arcy | 397 | 0.34% | |
| Democratic | Jeanne Shaheen (write-in) | 220 | 0.19% | |
| Scatter | 183 | 0.16% | ||
| Total votes | 117,884 | 100.00% | ||
General election
Debates
- Complete video of debate, October 21, 2014
- Complete video of debate, October 23, 2014
Fundraising
| Candidate (party) | Receipts | Disbursements | Cash on hand | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeanne Shaheen (D) | $16,506,920.00 | $16,466,208.00 | $88,652.00 | $10,620.00 |
| Scott Brown (R) | $9,222,677.00 | $9,163,652.00 | $59,026.00 | $0 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission | ||||
Independent expenditures
| Super PAC | Supporting | Amount | Media | Goal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate Majority PAC | Jeanne Shaheen | $682,558 | TV | Oppose Scott Brown |
| League of Conservation Voters Victory Fund | Jeanne Shaheen | $364,320 | TV | Oppose Scott Brown |
| Ending Spending Inc. | Scott Brown | $61,448 | Media | Oppose Jeanne Shaheen |
| Ending Spending Action Fund | Scott Brown | $60,136 | Media | Support Scott Brown |
| New Hampshire PAC to Save America | Jim Rubens | $57,866 | Direct Mail | Support Jim Rubens |
| NextGen Climate Action Committee | Jeanne Shaheen | $37,421 | Digital Advertising | Oppose Scott Brown |
| Ocean Champions | Jeanne Shaheen | $25,000 | Media | Oppose Scott Brown |
| Tea Party Victory Fund | Bob Smith | $15,000 | Voter Contact Calls | Support Bob Smith |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | Tossup | November 3, 2014 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean D | November 3, 2014 |
| Rothenberg Political Report | Tilt D | November 3, 2014 |
| Real Clear Politics | Tossup | November 3, 2014 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jeanne Shaheen (D) | Scott Brown (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | April 19–21, 2013 | 933 | ± ? | 52% | 41% | — | 7% |
| Rockefeller Center | April 22–25, 2013 | 433 | ± 4.7% | 44% | 30% | — | 26% |
| New England College | May 2–5, 2013 | 807 | ± 3.27% | 54% | 35% | — | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling | September 13–16, 2013 | 1,038 | ± 3% | 48% | 44% | — | 7% |
| American Research Group | December 13–16, 2013 | 549 | ± 4.2% | 48% | 38% | — | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling | January 9–12, 2014 | 1,354 | ± 2.7% | 46% | 43% | — | 10% |
| Purple Strategies | January 21–23, 2014 | 1,052 | ± 3% | 44% | 44% | — | 12% |
| Harper Polling | January 22–23, 2014 | 513 | ± 4.33% | 40% | 35% | — | 25% |
| WMUR/UNH | January 21–26, 2014 | 454 | ± 4.1% | 47% | 37% | 3% | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling | February 19–20, 2014 | 686 | ± 3.7% | 47% | 39% | — | 14% |
| Suffolk/Boston Herald | February 27 – March 5, 2014 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 52% | 39% | — | 9% |
| Rasmussen Reports | March 12–13, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 50% | 41% | 4% | 5% |
| American Research Group | March 13–16, 2014 | 533 | ± 4.2% | 50% | 38% | — | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling | April 7–8, 2014 | 1,034 | ± 3.1% | 49% | 41% | — | 10% |
| WMUR/UNH | April 1–9, 2014 | 387 | ± 5% | 45% | 39% | 2% | 14% |
| Rockefeller Center | April 21–25, 2014 | 412 | ± 4.8% | 39% | 36% | — | 25% |
| Hickman Analytics | April 24–30, 2014 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 49% | 43% | — | 8% |
| Vox Populi Polling | May 14–15, 2014 | 707 | ± 3.6% | 47% | 35% | — | 18% |
| American Research Group | June 14–18, 2014 | 540 | ± 4.2% | 50% | 38% | — | 12% |
| Suffolk/Boston Herald Archived June 20, 2014, at the Wayback Machine | June 14–18, 2014 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 49% | 39% | 3% | 9% |
| WMUR/UNH | June 19 – July 1, 2014 | 509 | ± 4.3% | 52% | 40% | 1% | 7% |
| NBC News/Marist | July 7–13, 2014 | 1,342 | ± 2.7% | 50% | 42% | 1% | 6% |
| Magellan Strategies | July 7–13, 2014 | 1,618 | ± 2.43% | 46% | 41% | — | 13% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov | July 5–24, 2014 | 1,251 | ± 2.9% | 50% | 40% | 4% | 6% |
| WMUR/UNH | August 7–17, 2014 | 609 | ± 4% | 46% | 44% | 1% | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling | August 27–28, 2014 | 766 | ± ? | 50% | 44% | — | 6% |
| Public Opinion Strategies | August 27 – September 1, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.38% | 44% | 41% | 9% | 6% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov | August 18 – September 2, 2014 | 1,159 | ± 4% | 47% | 41% | 4% | 9% |
| Kiley & Company | September 2–4, 2014 | 602 | ± 4% | 50% | 42% | — | 8% |
| Global Strategy Group | September 10, 2014 | 1,027 | ± 3.1% | 48% | 41% | — | 11% |
| Kiley & Company[dead link] | September 9–11, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | 51% | 43% | — | 6% |
| CNN/ORC | September 8–11, 2014 | 735 LV | ± 3.5% | 48% | 48% | — | 4% |
| 883 RV | ± 3.5% | 51% | 44% | — | 5% | ||
| Magellan Strategies | September 10–11, 2014 | 2,214 | ± 2% | 44% | 46% | — | 10% |
| Rasmussen Reports | September 10–11, 2014 | 1,027 | ± 3.1% | 48% | 42% | 5% | 5% |
| New England College | September 10–11, 2014 | 630 | ± 3.98% | 51% | 40% | 5% | 4% |
| American Research Group | September 12–15, 2014 | 544 | ± 4.2% | 50% | 45% | — | 5% |
| Vox Populi Polling | September 15–16, 2014 | 550 | ± 4.2% | 43% | 47% | — | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling | September 18–19, 2014 | 652 | ± 3.8% | 50% | 44% | — | 5% |
| New England College | September 19–20, 2014 | 1,494 | ± 2.54% | 50% | 43% | 4% | 3% |
| American Research Group | September 27–29, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | 53% | 43% | — | 4% |
| New England College | September 26, 2014 | 1,331 | ± 2.69% | 47% | 47% | 3% | 3% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov | September 20 – October 1, 2014 | 1,260 | ± 3% | 48% | 41% | 1% | 10% |
| New England College | October 3, 2014 | 1,286 | ± 2.73% | 49% | 46% | 3% | 2% |
| WMUR/UNH | September 29 – October 5, 2014 | 532 | ± 4.2% | 47% | 41% | 1% | 10% |
| High Point University | October 4–8, 2014 | 824 | ± 3.4% | 48% | 46% | — | 6% |
| Kiley & Company | October 7–9, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | 50% | 44% | — | 6% |
| New England College | October 9, 2014 | 1,081 | ± 2.98% | 47% | 48% | 3% | 2% |
| UMass Amherst | October 10–15, 2014 | 322 LV | ± 6.6% | 48% | 45% | 5% | 2% |
| 400 RV | ± 6% | 49% | 41% | 5% | 5% | ||
| New England College | October 16, 2014 | 921 | ± 3.23% | 47% | 48% | 3% | 2% |
| Suffolk/Boston Herald | October 16–19, 2014 | 500 | ± ? | 49% | 46% | — | 6% |
| UMass Lowell | October 15–21, 2014 | 643 LV | ± 4.5% | 49% | 46% | 1% | 4% |
| 900 RV | ± 3.8% | 48% | 41% | 2% | 10% | ||
| CNN/ORC | October 18–21, 2014 | 645 LV | ± 4% | 49% | 47% | — | 3% |
| 877 RV | ± 3.5% | 50% | 44% | — | 5% | ||
| Public Policy Polling | October 20–21, 2014 | 764 | ± ? | 49% | 45% | — | 5% |
| American Research Group | October 19–22, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | 49% | 48% | — | 3% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov | October 16–23, 2014 | 1,042 | ± 4% | 46% | 41% | 1% | 12% |
| New England College | October 24, 2014 | 1,132 | ± 2.91% | 47% | 48% | 3% | 2% |
| WMUR/UNH | October 22–26, 2014 | 555 | ± 4.2% | 50% | 42% | — | 8% |
| Vox Populi Polling | October 27–28, 2014 | 638 | ± 3.9% | 49% | 45% | — | 6% |
| American Research Group | October 27–29, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | 49% | 49% | — | 2% |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 29–30, 2014 | 940 | ± 3% | 52% | 45% | 1% | 2% |
| Public Policy Polling | October 30–31, 2014 | 679 | ± ? | 49% | 47% | — | 4% |
| New England College | October 31 – November 1, 2014 | 1,526 | ± 2.51% | 48% | 49% | 1% | 2% |
| WMUR/UNH | October 29 – November 2, 2014 | 757 | ± 3.6% | 47% | 45% | 3% | 6% |
| Public Policy Polling | November 1–3, 2014 | 1,690 | ± 2.4% | 50% | 48% | — | 3% |
Results
The race was close throughout the night. However, with 57% of the vote in MSNBC was comfortable enough with Shaheen's lead to declare her the victor. Brown called Shaheen to concede at 11:32 P.M. EST. Shaheen won with a 3.3% margin of victory over Brown, securing a majority of the votes cast by over 1%.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Jeanne Shaheen (incumbent) | 251,184 | 51.46% | -0.16% | |
| Republican | Scott Brown | 235,347 | 48.21% | +2.93% | |
| Write-in | 1,628 | 0.33% | N/A | ||
| Total votes | 488,159 | 100.0% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Hillsborough (largest municipality: Manchester)
Results by congressional district
Shaheen won 1 of the 2 congressional districts.
| District | Shaheen | Brown | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 49.34% | 50.66% | Frank Guinta |
| 2nd | 53.94% | 46.06% | Ann McLane Kuster |
See also
References
External links
- U.S. Senate elections in New Hampshire, 2014 at Ballotpedia
- Scott Brown vs Jeanne Shaheen Archived July 14, 2014, at the Wayback Machine graph of multiple polls from HuffPost Pollster
- Campaign contributions at OpenSecrets
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