2024 United States Senate Election In Texas
The 2024 United States Senate election in Texas will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Texas.
Two-term incumbent Republican Senator Ted Cruz is seeking a third term in office. Primary elections took place on March 5, 2024 during Super Tuesday.
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U.S. Representative Colin Allred won the Democratic nomination to challenge Cruz and is seeking to become the first Democrat to win a U.S. Senate race in Texas since 1988 and the first Democrat to win any statewide election in Texas since 1994.
Background
Texas is generally considered to be a Republican stronghold, having not elected a Democrat to any statewide office since 1994.
Republicans control both U.S. Senate seats, all statewide offices, both houses of the Texas Legislature, and a large majority in Texas' U.S. House congressional delegation.
Cruz was first elected in 2012, defeating Paul Sadler by 15.84 points and was reelected in 2018 by only 2.56 points, narrowly defeating Beto O'Rourke. The close elections in 2018 prompted some analysts to believe that Texas could become a swing state, but in the 2020 and 2022 elections, Republicans improved their margins of victory.
This race is considered to heavily favor Cruz, but some consider the race to have a potential to become competitive.
Republican primary
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 Results by county Cruz: 70–80% 80–90% >90% | |||||||||||||||||
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Candidates
Nominee
- Ted Cruz, incumbent U.S. senator (2013–present)
Eliminated in primary
- Holland Gibson, retiree
- Rufus Lopez, attorney
Declined
- Dan Crenshaw, U.S. representative from Texas's 2nd congressional district (2019–present) (running for re-election)
- Adam Kinzinger, former U.S. representative from Illinois's 16th congressional district (2011–2023)
Endorsements
Ted Cruz
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of February 14, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Ted Cruz (R) | $46,587,309 | $40,169,663 | $6,575,604 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission | |||
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Ted Cruz | Holland Gibson | Rufus Lopez | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | February 2–12, 2024 | 492 (RV) | ± 4.42% | 82% | 7% | 3% | 9% | – |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Ted Cruz (incumbent) | 1,977,961 | 88.3 | |
| Republican | Holland Gibson | 134,011 | 6.0 | |
| Republican | Rufus Lopez | 127,986 | 5.7 | |
| Total votes | 2,239,958 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic primary
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 Results by county Allred: 20–30% 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Gutierrez: 20–30% 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% Gonzalez: 20–30% 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% >90% Gomez: 20–30% Tied No Votes | |||||||||||||||||
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Candidates
Nominee
- Colin Allred, U.S. representative from Texas's 32nd congressional district (2019–present)
Eliminated in primary
- Meri Gomez, tax consultant
- Mark Gonzalez, former Nueces County District Attorney (2017–2023)
- Roland Gutierrez, state senator from the 19th district (2021–present)
- Robert Hassan, businessman
- Steven Keough, law professor and retired U.S. Navy captain
- Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman, tech entrepreneur
- Carl Sherman, state representative from the 109th district (2019–present)
- Thierry Tchenko, home repair nonprofit executive and former associate director of the District of Columbia Office of Policy
Disqualified
- Aaron Arguijo, coffee shop owner and U.S. Navy veteran
Withdrew
- John Love III, former Midland city councilor and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2020 (running for U.S. House)
- Zachariah Manning, businessman (running for U.S. House)
Declined
- Julián Castro, former U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development (2014–2017), former mayor of San Antonio (2009–2014), and candidate for President of the United States in 2020
- Veronica Escobar, U.S. representative for Texas's 16th congressional district (2019–present) (running for re-election, endorsed Allred)
- Scott Kelly, retired NASA astronaut and brother of Arizona Senator Mark Kelly
Endorsements
Colin Allred
- U.S. senators
- Catherine Cortez Masto, Nevada (2017–present)
- Al Franken, Minnesota (2009–2018)
- Jon Tester, Montana (2007–present)
- Tina Smith, Minnesota (2018–present)
- U.S. representatives
- Veronica Escobar, TX-16 (2019–present)
- Lizzie Fletcher, TX-07 (2019–present)
- Seth Moulton, MA-06 (2015–present)
- Marc Veasey, TX-33 (2013–present)
- State legislators
- Cesar Blanco, state senator from the 29th district (2021–present)
- Chris Turner, former Minority Leader of the Texas House of Representatives (2017–2023) from the 101st district (2013–present)
- Local officials
- Rodney Ellis, Harris County Commissioner for Precinct 1 (2017–present)
- Clay Jenkins, Dallas County Judge (2011–present)
- John Wiley Price, Dallas County Commissioner for District 3 (1985–present)
- Sylvester Turner, former Mayor of Houston (2016–2024)
- Individuals
- Olivia Julianna, activist
- Kelley Robinson, president of Human Rights Campaign
- Organizations
- College Democrats of America
- Collective PAC
- Congressional Black Caucus PAC
- Council for a Livable World
- End Citizens United
- Harvard College Democrats
- Human Rights Campaign
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- J Street PAC
- League of Conservation Voters
- Let America Vote
- Midwest Values PAC
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare
- Peace Action
- Labor unions
- American Federation of Government Employees
- Association of Flight Attendants
- Texas AFL-CIO
- United Auto Workers
- Newspapers and other media
Roland Gutierrez
- U.S. representatives
- Filemon Vela Jr., TX-34 (2013–2022)
- Sylvia Garcia, TX-29 (2019–present)
- State legislators
- Art Fierro, former state representative from the 79th district (2019–2023)
- Penny Morales Shaw, state representative from the 148th district (2021–present)
- Claudia Ordaz, state representative from the 79th district (2023–present)
- José Rodríguez, former Texas Senate Minority Leader (2015–2020) from the 29th district (2011–2021)
- Individuals
- Ramón Ayala, musician
- Organizations
- Austin Young Democrats
- Eastside Democrats of El Paso
- Emgage PAC
- Houston LGBTQ+ Political Caucus
- Latino Victory Fund
- Our Revolution Montgomery County
- Stonewall Democrats of San Antonio, Dallas, and El Paso
- Texas Progressive Caucus
- University of Texas at Austin College Democrats (University Democrats)
- Newspapers
Declined to endorse
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of February 14, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Colin Allred (D) | $21,371,157 | $12,867,031 | $8,504,126 |
| Mark Gonzalez (D) | $14,967 | $11,659 | $3,307 |
| Roland Gutierrez (D) | $1,301,543 | $1,146,487 | $155,055 |
| Steven Keough (D) | $27,357 | $27,730 | $0 |
| Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman (D) | $30,458 | $29,440 | $1,017 |
| Carl Sherman (D) | $173,565 | $150,616 | $22,949 |
| Thierry Tchenko (D) | $117,067 | $106,606 | $10,461 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission | |||
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Colin Allred | Meri Gomez | Mark Gonzalez | Roland Gutierrez | Carl Sherman | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UT Tyler | February 18–26, 2024 | 441 (LV) | ± 5.3% | 37% | – | – | 22% | 6% | 2% | 32% |
| YouGov | February 2–12, 2024 | 354 (RV) | ± 5.21% | 52% | 3% | 5% | 14% | 2% | 5% | 18% |
| YouGov | January 11–24, 2024 | 1,500 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 40% | 4% | 2% | 12% | 1% | 3% | 38% |
| Emerson College | January 13–15, 2024 | 460 (RV) | ± 4.81% | 29% | 4% | 6% | 7% | 2% | 15% | 37% |
| YouGov | December 1–10, 2023 | 415 (RV) | ± 4.81% | 28% | 3% | 2% | 7% | 2% | 10% | 48% |
| YouGov | October 5–17, 2023 | 409 (RV) | ± 4.84% | 21% | 2% | 2% | 10% | 2% | 15% | 46% |
| Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation | May 8–17, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 33% | – | – | 22% | – | 4% | 41% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Colin Allred | 569,585 | 58.9 | |
| Democratic | Roland Gutierrez | 160,978 | 16.6 | |
| Democratic | Mark Gonzalez | 85,228 | 8.8 | |
| Democratic | Meri Gomez | 44,166 | 4.6 | |
| Democratic | Carl Sherman | 31,694 | 3.3 | |
| Democratic | Robert Hassan | 21,855 | 2.3 | |
| Democratic | Steven Keough | 21,801 | 2.3 | |
| Democratic | Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman | 18,801 | 1.9 | |
| Democratic | Thierry Tchenko | 13,395 | 1.4 | |
| Total votes | 967,503 | 100.00 | ||
Green primary
Candidates
Filed paperwork
- Mason Cysewski
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | Likely R | November 9, 2023 |
| Inside Elections | Likely R | November 9, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Likely R | November 9, 2023 |
| Elections Daily | Likely R | May 4, 2023 |
| CNalysis | Lean R | November 21, 2023 |
Endorsements
Endorsements in bold were made after the primary election.
Ted Cruz (R)
- U.S. Executive Branch officials
- John Bolton, United States National Security Advisor (2018–2019), United States Ambassador to the United Nations (2005–2006)
- U.S. senators
- Norm Coleman, Minnesota (2003–2009)
- Labor unions
- Organizations
Colin Allred (D)
- U.S. senators
- Catherine Cortez Masto, Nevada (2017–present)
- Al Franken, Minnesota (2009–2018)
- Jon Tester, Montana (2007–present)
- Tina Smith, Minnesota (2018–present)
- Gary Peters, Michigan (2015–present)
- U.S. representatives
- Gabby Giffords, U.S. representative from Arizona's 8th congressional district (2007–2012)
- Veronica Escobar, TX-16 (2019–present)
- Lizzie Fletcher, TX-07 (2019–present)
- Seth Moulton, MA-06 (2015–present)
- Marc Veasey, TX-33 (2013–present)
- State legislators
- Cesar Blanco, state senator from the 29th district (2021–present)
- Chris Turner, former Minority Leader of the Texas House of Representatives (2017–2023) from the 101st district (2013–present)
- Local officials
- Rodney Ellis, Harris County Commissioner for Precinct 1 (2017–present)
- Clay Jenkins, Dallas County Judge (2011–present)
- John Wiley Price, Dallas County Commissioner for District 3 (1985–present)
- Sylvester Turner, former Mayor of Houston (2016–2024)
- Individuals
- Olivia Julianna, activist
- Kelley Robinson, president of Human Rights Campaign
- Organizations
- College Democrats of America
- Collective PAC
- Congressional Black Caucus PAC
- Council for a Livable World
- Democrats Serve
- End Citizens United
- Giffords
- Harvard College Democrats
- Human Rights Campaign
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- J Street PAC
- League of Conservation Voters
- Let America Vote
- Midwest Values PAC
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare
- National Organization for Women PAC
- Peace Action
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Reproductive Freedom for All
- Labor unions
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Ted Cruz (R) | Colin Allred (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation | April 5–10, 2024 | 1,600 (LV) | ± 2.45% | 46% | 41% | 4% | 9% |
| Cygnal (R) | April 4–6, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 45% | 36% | 5% | 14% |
| Marist College | March 18–21, 2024 | 1,117 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 51% | 45% | 1% | 3% |
| UT Tyler | February 18–26, 2024 | 1,167 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 41% | 41% | 7% | 12% |
| YouGov | February 2–12, 2024 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 3.49% | 46% | 32% | 9% | 13% |
| National Public Affairs | February 6–8, 2024 | 807 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 44% | – | 12% |
| YouGov | January 11–24, 2024 | 1,145 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 48% | 39% | 4% | 9% |
| Emerson College | January 13–15, 2024 | 1,315 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 42% | 40% | 8% | 11% |
| YouGov | December 1–10, 2023 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 43% | 27% | 15% | 15% |
| University of Texas at Tyler | May 10–21, 2023 | 1,413 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 37% | 8% | 14% |
| Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation | May 8–17, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 40% | 4% | 9% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Ted Cruz (incumbent) | ||||
| Democratic | Colin Allred | ||||
| Total votes | |||||
Notes
- Partisan clients