2020 United States Senate Special Election In Arizona
The 2020 United States Senate special election in Arizona was held on November 3, 2020, following the death in office of incumbent Republican U.S.
Senator John McCain on August 25, 2018. Governor Doug Ducey was required by Arizona law to appoint a Republican to fill the vacant seat until a special election winner could be sworn in. On September 5, 2018, Ducey appointed former U.S. Senator Jon Kyl to fill McCain's seat. However, Kyl announced he would resign on December 31, 2018.
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On December 18, 2018, Ducey announced that outgoing U.S. Representative Martha McSally would be appointed to fill the seat following Kyl's resignation. McSally was sworn in as the state's junior U.S. Senator on January 3, 2019, less than two months after she was defeated by Democrat Kyrsten Sinema for Arizona's Class 1 U.S. Senate seat. McSally ran to complete the term, defeating skincare executive Daniel McCarthy in the Republican primary. She faced former astronaut Mark Kelly, who ran uncontested in the Democratic primary. Primary elections took place on August 4, 2020.
Once a reliably Republican state, Arizona trended more purple in the late 2010s. Kelly significantly outraised McSally and led by about 5% in the average poll leading up to Election Day.
Kelly defeated McSally by a margin of 2.4% on election night, thereby flipping the seat Democratic. As a result, he outperformed Joe Biden in the concurrent presidential election, who defeated President Donald Trump by a margin of 0.3% in the state, but underperformed his polling average. Kelly became the first Democrat to win the Class 3 Senate seat since Carl Hayden won his last term in 1962. This also marked the first time since the 82nd Congress preceding the 1952 election that Democrats held both Senate seats in Arizona.
Kelly was sworn in on December 2, 2020.
Interim appointments
Appointees
- Jon Kyl, former U.S. senator, former U.S. Representative for Arizona's 4th congressional district and former Senate Minority Whip, resigned December 31, 2018
- Martha McSally, former U.S. representative for Arizona's 2nd congressional district, 2018 Republican nominee for U.S. Senate, assumed office January 3, 2019
Potential candidates not appointed
- Kirk Adams, incumbent chief of staff to incumbent governor of Arizona Doug Ducey and former speaker of the Arizona House of Representatives
- Barbara Barrett, Secretary of the Air Force and former United States Ambassador to Finland
- Jan Brewer, former governor of Arizona and former secretary of state of Arizona
- Paul Gosar, incumbent U.S. representative for Arizona's 4th congressional district
- Eileen Klein, former treasurer of Arizona and former chief of staff to former governor of Arizona Jan Brewer
- Cindy McCain, widow of former U.S. senator John McCain
- Meghan McCain, daughter of former U.S. senator John McCain
- Mick McGuire, incumbent adjutant general of the Arizona National Guard
- Karrin Taylor Robson, businesswoman and incumbent member of the Arizona Board of Regents
- Matt Salmon, former U.S. representative, 2002 gubernatorial nominee and former chairperson of the Arizona Republican Party
- David Schweikert, incumbent U.S. representative for Arizona's 6th congressional district
- John Shadegg, former U.S. representative for Arizona's 3rd congressional district
- Kelli Ward, former candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016 and 2018
- Grant Woods, former Republican Arizona Attorney General and former congressional chief of staff to former U.S. senator John McCain
Republican primary
Incumbent McSally faced one challenger: Daniel McCarthy, a skincare company executive. Upon his respective announcements, McCarthy's independent wealth was expected to set up a bruising and expensive primary campaign, however, McSally won the primary in a landslide.
Candidates
Nominee
- Martha McSally, incumbent U.S. senator and former U.S. Representative for Arizona's 2nd congressional district
Eliminated in primary
- Sean Lyons (as a write-in candidate)
- Daniel McCarthy, skincare company executive
Withdrawn
- Craig Brittain, former revenge porn site operator
- PT Burton
- Mark Cavener
- Floyd Getchell
- Ann Griffin, former teacher
- Josue Larose, 2016 Republican presidential candidate and 2012 Republican candidate for Louisiana's 2nd congressional district
Declined
- Kirk Adams, incumbent chief of staff to incumbent governor of Arizona Doug Ducey and former Speaker of the Arizona House of Representatives
- Joe Arpaio, former Sheriff of Maricopa County and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018 (running for Maricopa County Sheriff)
- Doug Ducey, Governor of Arizona
- Paul Gosar, U.S. representative for Arizona's 4th congressional district
- Jon Kyl, former U.S. senator, former U.S. Representative for Arizona's 4th congressional district and former Senate Minority Whip
- Blake Masters, president of the Thiel Foundation
- Curt Schilling, former Major League Baseball player and Blaze Media commentator
- Fife Symington, former governor of Arizona
Endorsements
Martha McSally
- U.S. presidents
- George W. Bush, 43rd president of the United States
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States
- State officials
- Doug Ducey, Governor of Arizona (2015–2023)
- Individuals
- Buzz Aldrin, U.S. astronaut
- Organizations
Primary results
McSally—80–90%
McSally—70–80%
McSally—60–70%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Martha McSally (incumbent) | 551,119 | 75.2% | |
| Republican | Daniel McCarthy | 181,551 | 24.8% | |
| Republican | Sean Lyons (write-in) | 210 | nil | |
| Total votes | 732,880 | 100.0% | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Mark Kelly, retired American astronaut, engineer, retired U.S. Navy Captain and husband of former U.S. Representative Gabby Giffords
Eliminated in primary
- Bo "Heir Archy" Garcia (as a write-in candidate)
Withdrew
- Mohammad Arif, businessman and perennial candidate (write-in) (switched to Democratic general election write-in candidacy)
- Sheila Bilyeu, Democratic candidate for the 2020 United States Senate election in Oklahoma
- Juan Angel Vasquez
Declined
- Ruben Gallego, incumbent U.S. representative for Arizona's 7th congressional district (running for re-election) (endorsed Mark Kelly)
- Katie Hobbs, Secretary of State of Arizona
- Grant Woods, former Republican Arizona Attorney General and former congressional chief of staff to former U.S. senator John McCain
Endorsements
Mark Kelly (D)
- U.S. presidents
- Barack Obama, 44th president of the United States
- U.S. senators
- Kamala Harris, U.S. senator from California
- Amy Klobuchar, U.S. senator from Minnesota
- Kyrsten Sinema, U.S. senator from Arizona
- U.S. representatives
- Ruben Gallego, U.S. representative (AZ-07)
- Individuals
- Organizations
- 314 Action
- Coalition to Stop Gun Violence
- Council for a Livable World
- Brady Campaign
- Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee
- End Citizens United
- Everytown for Gun Safety
- Feminist Majority PAC
- High School Democrats of America
- Human Rights Campaign
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- League of Conservation Voters
- NARAL Pro-Choice America
- National Organization for Women
- Students for Gun Legislation
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Sierra Club
- Stonewall Democrats of Arizona
- VoteVets
Primary results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Mark Kelly | 665,620 | 99.9% | |
| Democratic | Bo Garcia (write-in) | 451 | 0.1% | |
| Total votes | 666,071 | 100.0% | ||
Libertarian primary
Neither one of the write-in candidates received enough votes to secure the Libertarian nomination in the general election.
Write-in candidates
Eliminated in primary
- Barry Hess, write-in Libertarian candidate in the 2018 United States Senate election in Arizona and Libertarian nominee in the 2014 Arizona gubernatorial election
- Alan White
Primary results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Barry Hess (write-in) | 329 | 76.5% | |
| Libertarian | Alan White (write-in) | 101 | 23.5% | |
| Total votes | 430 | 100.0% | ||
Other candidates
General election write-in candidates
Declared
- Republican
- Edward Davida
- John Schiess
- Debbie Simmons
- Patrick "Pat" Thomas
- Democratic
- Perry Kapadia
- Mohammed "Mike Obama" Arif
- Adam Chilton
- Buzz Stewart
- Other
- Christopher Beckett, veteran (Independent)
- William "Will" Decker (Independent)
- Matthew "Doc" Dorchester (Libertarian)
- Nicholas N. Glenn, navy veteran and aerospace engineer (Independent Republican)
- Mathew Haupt (Independent)
- Benjamin Rodriguez (Independent)
- Joshua Rodriguez (Unity)
- Frank Saenz (Independent)
- Jim Stevens (Independent)
Withdrawn
- Robert Kay (Independent)
General election
Debates
- Complete video of debate, October 6, 2020
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | Lean D (flip) | October 29, 2020 |
| Inside Elections | Tilt D (flip) | October 28, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean D (flip) | November 2, 2020 |
| Daily Kos | Lean D (flip) | October 30, 2020 |
| Politico | Lean D (flip) | November 2, 2020 |
| RCP | Tossup | October 23, 2020 |
| DDHQ | Likely D (flip) | November 3, 2020 |
| 538 | Likely D (flip) | November 2, 2020 |
| Economist | Lean D (flip) | November 2, 2020 |
Endorsements
Martha McSally (R)
- Federal officials
- George W. Bush, 43rd president of the United States
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States
- Nikki Haley, former U.S. Ambassador to the UN (2017–2018) and former governor of South Carolina (2011–2017)
- State officials
- Doug Ducey, Governor of Arizona (2015–2023)
- Organizations
- Maggie's List
- Campaign for Working Families
- Huck PAC
- Republican Jewish Coalition
- Susan B. Anthony List
- Newspapers
- Others
- Buzz Aldrin, former astronaut and lunar module pilot for Apollo 11
Mark Kelly (D)
- Federal officials
- Barack Obama, 44th president of the United States
- Kamala Harris, U.S. senator from California; 49th Vice President of the United States
- Amy Klobuchar, U.S. senator from Minnesota
- Kyrsten Sinema, U.S. senator from Arizona
- Ruben Gallego, U.S. representative from AZ-07
- Seth Moulton, U.S. representative from MA-06
- Organizations
- 314 Action
- Center for Biological Diversity
- Climate Hawks Vote
- Coalition to Stop Gun Violence
- Council for a Livable World
- Brady Campaign
- Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee
- End Citizens United
- Equality Arizona
- Everytown for Gun Safety
- Feminist Majority PAC
- High School Democrats of America
- Human Rights Campaign
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- J Street
- League of Conservation Voters
- MoveOn
- NARAL Pro-Choice America
- National Education Association
- National Organization for Women
- Natural Resources Defense Council Action Fund
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Sierra Club
- Stonewall Democrats of Arizona
- VoteVets
- Unions
- Newspapers
- Others
- Kerry Washington, actress
Polling
Graphical summary
Aggregate polls
| Mark Kelly vs. Martha McSally | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Mark Kelly | Martha McSally | Margin |
| 270 to Win | November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 49.8% | 44.8% | Kelly +5.0 |
| Real Clear Politics | November 1, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 50.5% | 44.8% | Kelly +5.7 |
| Average | 50.2% | 44.8% | Kelly +5.4 | ||
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Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Mark Kelly | 1,716,467 | 51.16% | +10.41% | |
| Republican | Martha McSally (incumbent) | 1,637,661 | 48.81% | −4.90% | |
| Write-in | 1,169 | 0.03% | -0.03% | ||
| Total votes | 3,355,297 | 100.0% | |||
| Democratic gain from Republican | |||||
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See also
Notes
- Partisan clients