2018 United States Senate Election In Indiana
The 2018 United States Senate election in Indiana took place on November 6, 2018, along with other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
Incumbent Democratic Senator Joe Donnelly lost re-election to a second term to Republican Mike Braun by a 6% margin. This was the second consecutive election for this seat where the incumbent was defeated and/or the seat flipped parties.
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| Turnout | 50.42%  | ||||||||||||||||
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   Donnelly: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% | |||||||||||||||||
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In 2017, Politico described the race as "possibly the GOP's best opportunity to seize a Senate seat from Democrats" in the 2018 elections. The primary election was held on May 8, 2018. In October 2018, RealClearPolitics rated the race a toss-up between the Democratic and Republican nominees, with the Libertarian receiving a poll average of 6%.
Background
In 2012, Joe Donnelly was elected to the Senate with 50% of the vote to Republican nominee Richard Mourdock's 44%. In the 2016 presidential election, Republican nominee Donald Trump won Indiana with about 56.5% of the vote to Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton's 37.5%.
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Joe Donnelly, incumbent U.S. Senator
Withdrew
- Martin Del Rio, Iraq War veteran
Endorsements
Joe Donnelly
- 47th Vice President of the United States
- United States Senator
- Doug Jones, United States Senator from Alabama
- Organization
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Joe Donnelly (incumbent) | 284,621 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 284,621 | 100.00% | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Mike Braun, businessman and former state representative
Eliminated in the primary election
- Luke Messer, U.S. Representative
- Todd Rokita, U.S. Representative
Declined
- Jim Banks, U.S. Representative
- Susan Brooks, U.S. Representative (endorsed Luke Messer)
- Mike Delph, state senator (endorsed Todd Rokita)
- Jackie Walorski, U.S. Representative
Withdrawn
- Terry Henderson, businessman (endorsed Mike Braun)
- Andy Horning, Libertarian nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2012 and Libertarian nominee for IN-08 in 2014
- Mark Hurt, attorney and former congressional aide
- Andrew Takami, director of Purdue Polytechnic New Albany (endorsed Luke Messer)
Endorsements
Mike Braun
- U.S. Senators
- Tom Coburn (R-OK)
- State Senators
- State Representatives
- Ronald Bacon
- Christopher Judy
- Chris May
- Bob Morris
- Organizations
- Newspapers
Luke Messer
- U.S. Representatives
- Susan Brooks, U.S. Representative (R-IN)
- State-level officials
- Martin Carbaugh, state representative
- Dave Heine, state representative
- Todd Huston, state representative
- David C. Long, State Senate President Pro Tempore
- Wendy McNamara, state representative
- Thomas Wyss, former state senator
- Former state party chairs
- Tim Berry
- J. Murray Clark
- Gordon Durnil
- Al Hubbard
- Jim Kittle
- Bruce Melchert
- Local-level officials
- Christine Altman, Hamilton County Commissioner
- James Brainard, Carmel Mayor
- Andy Cook, Westfield Mayor
- Steve Dillinger, Hamilton County Commissioner
- Scott Fadness, Fishers Mayor
- Mark Heirbrandt, Hamilton County Commissioner
- Individuals
- James Bopp, conservative attorney and constitutional scholar
Todd Rokita
- State-level officials
- Mike Delph, state senator
- Alan Morrison, state representative
- Hal Slager, state representative
- Heath VanNatter, state representative
- Former state party chairs
- Jeff Cardwell
- Rexford C. Early
- Local-level officials
- Ken Meyer. Decatur Mayor
- Monty Snelling, Clark County Auditor
- Individuals
- Russ Willis, chairman of the Madison County Republican Party
- Newspapers
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Luke Messer | Todd Rokita | Mike Braun | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategic National (R) | May 5–6, 2018 | 300 | ± 5.7% | 29% | 28% | 44% | – | – |
| Gravis Marketing Archived November 28, 2020, at the Wayback Machine | April 6–11, 2018 | 280 | ± 5.9% | 13% | 16% | 26% | – | 45% |
| GS Strategy Group (R-Rokita) | January 6–9, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 9% | 24% | 9% | – | 58% |
| GS Strategy Group (R-Rokita) | July 16–18, 2017 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 20% | 28% | – | – | 51% |
| 14% | 21% | 11% | – | 55% | ||||
| OnMedia (R-Messer) Archived August 13, 2017, at the Wayback Machine | July 10–12, 2017 | 400 | ± 4.8% | 23% | 23% | 2% | 7% | 45% |
Results
Braun
- 80–90%
- 60–70%
- 50–60%
- 40–50%
- <40%
Rokita
- <40%
- 40–50%
Messer
- <40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mike Braun | 208,602 | 41.17% | |
| Republican | Todd Rokita | 151,967 | 29.99% | |
| Republican | Luke Messer | 146,131 | 28.84% | |
| Total votes | 506,700 | 100.00% | ||
Independent
Candidates
Declared
- James Johnson Jr.
General election
Candidates
- Mike Braun, businessman and former state representative (R)
- Lucy Brenton (L)
- Joe Donnelly, incumbent (D)
- James Johnson Jr. (I)
Debates
- Complete video of debate, October 8, 2018
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | Tossup | October 26, 2018 |
| Inside Elections | Tossup | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean R (flip) | November 5, 2018 |
| CNN | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
| Daily Kos | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate (party) | Total receipts | Total disbursements | Cash on hand |
| Joe Donnelly (D) | $16,100,528 | $13,872,981 | $2,321,981 |
| Mike Braun (R) | $16,964,706 | $15,576,842 | $1,387,861 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission | |||
Endorsements
Mike Braun (R)
- U.S. Executive Branch Officials
- George W. Bush, 43rd President of the United States
- Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States
- Mike Pence, 48th Vice President of the United States
- U.S. Senators
- Tom Coburn (R-OK, former)
- Joni Ernst (R-IA)
- Lindsey Graham (R-SC)
- David Perdue (R-GA)
- Todd Young (R-IN)
- U.S. Representatives
- Jim Banks, U.S. Representative (R-IN)
- Mark Meadows, U.S. Representative (R-NC)
- Todd Rokita, U.S. Representative, 2018 Senate candidate (R-IN)
- Governors
- State Senators
- State Representatives
- Ronald Bacon
- Christopher Judy
- Chris May
- Bob Morris
- Cabinet-level officials
- Kellyanne Conway, Counselor to the President
- Sarah Huckabee Sanders, White House Press Secretary
- Ivanka Trump, Advisor to the President
- Individuals
- Dan Bongino, NRATV contributor
- Rudy Giuliani, former Mayor of New York City
- Kimberly Guilfoyle, American television news personality
- Lou Holtz, former Notre Dame football coach
- Bob Knight, former Indiana University basketball coach
- Ronna McDaniel, Chair of the RNC
- Oliver North, President of the National Rifle Association of America
- Greg Pence, brother of Mike Pence
- Donald Trump Jr., businessman and son of U.S. President Donald Trump
- Organizations
- FreedomWorks
- Indiana Right to Life
- National Federation of Independent Business
- Republican Jewish Coalition
- Tea Party Patriots
- U.S. Chamber of Commerce
- NRA Political Victory Fund
- Indiana Manufacturers Association
- National Organization for Marriage
Joe Donnelly (D)
- U.S. Executive Branch officials
- Barack Obama, 44th President of the United States
- Joe Biden, 47th Vice President of the United States
- Chuck Hagel, former United States Secretary of Defense (Republican)
- U.S. Senators
- Michael Bennet, U.S. Senator from Colorado
- Cory Booker, U.S. Senator from New Jersey
- Chris Coons, U.S. Senator from Delaware
- Catherine Cortez Masto, U.S. Senator from Nevada
- Dick Durbin, U.S. Senator from Illinois
- Tammy Duckworth, U.S. Senator from Illinois
- Kamala Harris, U.S. Senator from California
- Doug Jones, U.S. Senator from Alabama
- Amy Klobuchar, U.S. Senator from Minnesota
- Brian Schatz, U.S. Senator from Hawaii
- Local officials
- John R. Gregg, former Speaker of the Indiana House of Representatives
- Thomas McDermott Jr., Mayor of Hammond, Indiana
- Individuals
- Victor Oladipo, professional basketball player for the Indiana Pacers
- Amy Schumer, actress
- Amy Siskind, activist and writer
- Derrick Mayes, professional football player
- Organizations
- Alliance for Retired Americans
- Communications Workers of America
- End Citizens United
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare
- National Education Association
- United Automobile Workers
- Newspapers
Declined to endorse
Polling
- Graphical summary
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Donnelly (D) | Mike Braun (R) | Lucy Brenton (L) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HarrisX | November 3–5, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 42% | 43% | – | – | – |
| HarrisX | November 2–4, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 43% | 41% | – | – | – |
| HarrisX | November 1–3, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 43% | 42% | – | – | – |
| HarrisX | October 31 – November 2, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 44% | 42% | – | – | – |
| HarrisX | October 30 – November 1, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 43% | 43% | – | – | – |
| HarrisX | October 29–31, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 40% | 43% | – | – | – |
| Fox News | October 27–30, 2018 | 722 LV | ± 3.5% | 45% | 38% | 5% | 2% | 9% |
| 852 RV | ± 3.0% | 42% | 38% | 6% | 2% | 11% | ||
| HarrisX Archived November 6, 2018, at the Wayback Machine | October 24–30, 2018 | 1,400 | ± 2.6% | 42% | 42% | – | – | – |
| NBC News/Marist | October 24–28, 2018 | 496 LV | ± 5.5% | 45% | 42% | 7% | <1% | 5% |
| 48% | 46% | – | 2% | 5% | ||||
| 800 RV | ± 4.2% | 43% | 40% | 9% | <1% | 7% | ||
| 47% | 45% | – | 2% | 7% | ||||
| Cygnal (R) | October 26–27, 2018 | 505 | ± 4.4% | 46% | 49% | – | 3% | 2% |
| YouGov | October 23–26, 2018 | 975 | ± 3.7% | 43% | 46% | 3% | 0% | 8% |
| Mason Strategies (R) | October 15–20, 2018 | 600 | ± 3.9% | 43% | 47% | 3% | – | 7% |
| American Viewpoint (R-Braun) | October 14–17, 2018 | 800 | – | 40% | 44% | 7% | – | 5% |
| SurveyUSA | October 12–16, 2018 | 816 | ± 4.6% | 41% | 40% | 8% | – | 11% |
| Gravis Marketing | October 12–16, 2018 | 377 | ± 5.1% | 44% | 40% | 7% | – | 10% |
| Vox Populi Polling | October 13–15, 2018 | 783 | ± 3.5% | 55% | 45% | – | – | – |
| American Viewpoint (R-Braun) | October 7–10, 2018 | 800 | – | 40% | 44% | 7% | – | 7% |
| American Viewpoint (R-Braun) | September 30 – October 3, 2018 | 800 | – | 39% | 43% | 7% | – | 5% |
| Fox News | September 29 – October 2, 2018 | 695 LV | ± 3.5% | 43% | 41% | 6% | 2% | 9% |
| 806 RV | ± 3.5% | 41% | 40% | 6% | 1% | 10% | ||
| Ipsos | September 12–20, 2018 | 1,181 | ± 3.0% | 46% | 43% | – | 3% | 8% |
| Fox News | September 8–11, 2018 | 677 LV | ± 3.5% | 43% | 45% | 3% | 1% | 8% |
| 804 RV | ± 3.5% | 42% | 41% | 4% | 1% | 10% | ||
| NBC News/Marist | August 26–29, 2018 | 576 LV | ± 5.0% | 44% | 41% | 8% | 1% | 6% |
| 49% | 43% | – | 2% | 7% | ||||
| 816 RV | ± 4.2% | 43% | 40% | 8% | 1% | 8% | ||
| 48% | 42% | – | 2% | 9% | ||||
| Trafalgar Group (R) | July 31 – August 7, 2018 | 1,420 | ± 2.6% | 51% | 39% | – | – | 11% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | June 11 – July 2, 2018 | 952 | ± 5.0% | 47% | 49% | – | – | 4% |
| Gravis Marketing | May 10–15, 2018 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 46% | 47% | – | – | 7% |
Results
On November 6, 2018, Braun won the general election. He swept southern Indiana, the exurbs of Indianapolis, and most other rural areas in the state. Donnelly ran well behind his 2012 vote totals, winning only in Indianapolis, the university centers (Bloomington, Terre Haute, West Lafayette, South Bend), and the suburbs of Chicago in Northwest Indiana.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mike Braun | 1,158,000 | 50.7% | +6.5% | |
| Democratic | Joe Donnelly (incumbent) | 1,023,553 | 44.8% | -5.2% | |
| Libertarian | Lucy Brenton | 100,942 | 4.4% | -1.3% | |
| Write-in | 70 | <0.01% | N/A | ||
| Total votes | 2,282,565 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republican gain from Democratic | |||||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Madison (largest city: Anderson)
- Spencer (largest city: Santa Claus)
- Starke (largest city: Knox)
- Vanderburgh (largest city: Evansville)
- Scott (Largest city: Scottsburg)
- Blackford (Largest city: Hartford City)
- Clark (Largest city: Jeffersonville)
- Crawford (Largest city: Marengo)
- Floyd (Largest city: New Albany)
- Jefferson (Largest city: Madison)
- Fayette (Largest city: Connersville)
- Henry (Largest city: New Castle)
- Howard (Largest city: Kokomo)
- Wayne (Largest city: Richmond)
- Vermillion (largest city: Clinton)
- Perry (largest city: Tell City)
- Sullivan (Largest city: Sullivan)
By congressional district
Braun won 6 of 9 congressional districts, with Donnelly winning the other 3, including one held by a Republican.
| District | Braun | Donnelly | Elected Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 37.9% | 60.6% | Pete Visclosky |
| 2nd | 51.0% | 45.5% | Jackie Walorski |
| 3rd | 59.6% | 36.7% | Jim Banks |
| 4th | 57.9% | 37.4% | Jim Baird |
| 5th | 47.9% | 48.4% | Susan Brooks |
| 6th | 60.8% | 34.3% | Greg Pence |
| 7th | 31.8% | 64.5% | André Carson |
| 8th | 57.3% | 38.4% | Larry Bucshon |
| 9th | 54.3% | 41.5% | Trey Hollingsworth |
Voter Demographics
| Demographic subgroup | Donnelly | Braun | No Answer | % of Voters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gender | ||||
| Men | 40 | 57 | 3 | 49 |
| Women | 49 | 46 | 5 | 51 |
| Age | ||||
| 18–29 years old | 48 | 45 | 7 | 13 |
| 30–44 years old | 49 | 43 | 8 | 20 |
| 45–64 years old | 44 | 54 | 3 | 39 |
| 65 and older | 41 | 57 | 1 | 28 |
| Race | ||||
| White | 40 | 56 | 4 | 86 |
| Black | 88 | 11 | 1 | 8 |
| Latino | 71 | 22 | 6 | 3 |
| Asian | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1 |
| Other | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2 |
| Race by gender | ||||
| White men | 35 | 62 | 3 | 42 |
| White women | 44 | 51 | 5 | 44 |
| Black men | 82 | 15 | 2 | 4 |
| Black women | 95 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| Latino men | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1 |
| Latina women | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2 |
| Others | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2 |
| Education | ||||
| High school or less | 40 | 56 | 4 | 23 |
| Some college education | 40 | 54 | 6 | 26 |
| Associate degree | 41 | 55 | 4 | 13 |
| Bachelor's degree | 46 | 51 | 3 | 22 |
| Advanced degree | 61 | 36 | 2 | 16 |
| Education and race | ||||
| White college graduates | 49 | 48 | 3 | 34 |
| White no college degree | 33 | 62 | 5 | 53 |
| Non-white college graduates | 80 | 19 | 2 | 4 |
| Non-white no college degree | 76 | 20 | 4 | 10 |
| Whites by education and gender | ||||
| White women with college degrees | 57 | 39 | 4 | 17 |
| White women without college degrees | 36 | 59 | 6 | 27 |
| White men with college degrees | 41 | 57 | 2 | 17 |
| White men without college degrees | 31 | 65 | 4 | 26 |
| Non-whites | 77 | 20 | 3 | 14 |
| Income | ||||
| Under $30,000 | 49 | 44 | 8 | 15 |
| $30,000–49,999 | 46 | 49 | 4 | 23 |
| $50,000–99,999 | 44 | 55 | 2 | 35 |
| $100,000–199,999 | 44 | 52 | 4 | 22 |
| Over $200,000 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 5 |
| Party ID | ||||
| Democrats | 92 | 6 | 2 | 29 |
| Republicans | 8 | 90 | 2 | 39 |
| Independents | 47 | 44 | 9 | 31 |
| Party by gender | ||||
| Democratic men | 92 | 6 | 2 | 12 |
| Democratic women | 93 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| Republican men | 8 | 91 | 1 | 19 |
| Republican women | 8 | 90 | 2 | 20 |
| Independent men | 42 | 52 | 7 | 18 |
| Independent women | 55 | 33 | 12 | 13 |
| Ideology | ||||
| Liberals | 86 | 8 | 6 | 20 |
| Moderates | 59 | 37 | 5 | 40 |
| Conservatives | 10 | 88 | 2 | 40 |
| Marital status | ||||
| Married | 43 | 54 | 3 | 61 |
| Unmarried | 51 | 46 | 3 | 39 |
| Gender by marital status | ||||
| Married men | 38 | 60 | 2 | 31 |
| Married women | 48 | 49 | 3 | 30 |
| Unmarried men | 42 | 53 | 5 | 19 |
| Unmarried women | 61 | 39 | 1 | 20 |
| First-time midterm election voter | ||||
| Yes | 41 | 53 | 6 | 15 |
| No | 46 | 51 | 3 | 85 |
| Most important issue facing the country | ||||
| Health care | 70 | 26 | 4 | 41 |
| Immigration | 10 | 85 | 5 | 27 |
| Economy | 31 | 66 | 3 | 21 |
| Gun policy | 66 | 31 | 3 | 8 |
| Area type | ||||
| Urban | 63 | 33 | 4 | 31 |
| Suburban | 44 | 53 | 3 | 44 |
| Rural | 37 | 58 | 5 | 25 |
| Source: CNN | ||||
Notes
References
External links
- Candidates at Vote Smart
- Candidates at Ballotpedia
- Campaign finance at FEC
- Campaign finance at OpenSecrets
- GOP Primary Debate, February 20, 2018
- Official campaign websites
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