The Art And Science Of Prediction

Tetlock">Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner. It details findings from The Good Judgment Project.

Superforecasting

First edition
Author	Philip E. Tetlock
Published	2015 (Crown Publishers)
Pages	340
ISBN	9780804136693
LC Class	HB3730 .T47X 2015

The Economist reports that superforecasters are clever (with a good mental attitude), but not necessarily geniuses. It reports on the treasure trove of data coming from The Good Judgment Project, showing that accurately selected amateur forecasters (and the confidence they had in their forecasts) were often more accurately tuned than experts. According to The Wall Street Journal, Superforecasting is "The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow." The Harvard Business Review paired it to the book How Not to Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking by Jordan Ellenberg. On the other hand, Klaus Solberg Søilen reviewing the book for the Journal of Intelligence Studies in Business was very critical, saying that the book did not give enough information on how the Good Judgment Project beat other forecasters.

• Guesstimate
• Fermi problem