2020 Eden-Monaro By-Election

The 2020 Eden-Monaro by-election was held on 4 July 2020 to elect the next Member of the Australian Parliament for the division of Eden-Monaro in the House of Representatives.

The by-election was triggered following the resignation of incumbent Labor MP Mike Kelly. Kelly resigned on 30 April 2020, citing ill health.

2020 Eden-Monaro by-election
2020 Eden-Monaro By-Election
← 2019 4 July 2020 (2020-07-04) 2022 →

Division of Eden-Monaro (NSW) in the House of Representatives
Registered114,244
Turnout89.08% Decrease 4.23%
  First party Second party
  2020 Eden-Monaro By-Election 2020 Eden-Monaro By-Election
Candidate Kristy McBain Fiona Kotvojs
Party Labor Liberal
Popular vote 34,073 36,388
Percentage 35.83% 38.33%
Swing Decrease 3.28 Increase 1.32
TPP 50.39% 49.61%
TPP swing Decrease 0.46 Increase 0.46

2020 Eden-Monaro By-Election
The Division of Eden-Monaro in New South Wales

MP before election

Mike Kelly
Labor

Elected MP

Kristy McBain
Labor

The poll occurred amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, and was the first by-election of the 46th Parliament of Australia. On the morning after the by-election, ABC News psephologist Antony Green called the election for the Labor candidate Kristy McBain.

Background

The electorate of Eden-Monaro has long been regarded as a bellwether seat. From the 1972 federal election to the 2013 federal election, the seat was won by a member of the same political party that also formed government following the election. At the 2016 election, the seat was won by Mike Kelly, who defeated incumbent Liberal MP Peter Hendy. Kelly, a veteran of the Australian Army, had previously represented the electorate in the House of Representatives between 2007 and 2013, and retained his seat at the 2019 election despite a 2% swing against him. At the time, Eden-Monaro was Labor's fourth-most marginal seat, held by a margin of only 0.85%.

Two-party-preferred vote in Eden-Monaro, 1996–2019
Election 1996 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019
  Labor 45.24% 49.82% 48.31% 47.86% 53.40% 54.24% 49.39% 52.93% 50.85%
  Liberal 54.76% 50.18% 51.69% 52.14% 46.60% 45.76% 50.61% 47.07% 49.15%
Government LNP LNP LNP LNP ALP ALP LNP LNP LNP

Prime Minister and Leader of the Liberal Party Scott Morrison confirmed that the party would contest a by-election in Eden-Monaro were it to occur. Deputy Prime Minister and Leader of the National Party Michael McCormack also declared his party would contest the by-election.

After speculation that he would retire from politics, Kelly announced his resignation on 30 April, citing personal health issues relating to his time in the Australian Army.

Key dates

Key dates in relation to the by-election are:

  • Thursday, 28 May 2020 – Issue of writ
  • Thursday, 4 June 2020 – Close of electoral rolls (8pm)
  • Tuesday, 9 June 2020 – Close of nominations (12 noon)
  • Wednesday, 10 June 2020 – Declaration of nominations (12 noon)
  • Monday, 15 June 2020 – Start of early voting
  • Saturday, 4 July 2020 – Polling day (8am to 6pm)
  • Friday, 17 July 2020 – Last day for receipt of postal votes
  • Monday, 20 July 2020 – Declaration of result
  • Saturday, 5 September 2020 – Last day for return of writs

Preselection

Labor

Kristy McBain, Mayor of Bega Valley Shire, nominated for Labor preselection on 1 May 2020. Anthony Albanese, the federal Labor leader, endorsed McBain as his preferred candidate later that day. On 4 May, McBain was preselected as Labor's candidate, against Yass Valley branch president Michael Pilbrow.

Liberal

On 5 May, Andrew Constance, New South Wales Minister for Transport and Roads and state MP for Bega confirmed that he would seek Liberal Party preselection, before announcing the following day he would not run for the seat. Jerry Nockles, a former Navy seaman, and Pru Gordon, the general manager for economics and trade at the National Farmers' Federation, were also named as potential candidates.

Preselection for the Liberal Party was held on 22–23 May, and was contested by two candidates:

Following the preselection, Kotvojs was endorsed as the Liberal Party candidate.

Nationals

John Barilaro, the Deputy Premier of New South Wales and state MP for Monaro, had publicly expressed interest in running for Nationals preselection, though on 4 May he announced that he would not stand for the seat.

Preselection for the National Party was held on 6 June, and was contested by four candidates:

  • Fleur Flanery, organiser of the Australian Landscape Conference,
  • Michael Green, farmer and chair of the NSW Farmers Association (Cooma branch),
  • Mareeta Grundy, former candidate for Queanbeyan–Palerang Regional Council, and
  • Trevor Hicks, former Deputy Mayor of Queanbeyan–Palerang Regional Council.

Following the preselection, Hicks was endorsed as the National Party candidate.

Candidates

Candidates (14) in ballot paper order
Party Candidate Background
  Shooters, Fishers, Farmers Matthew Stadtmiller Hilltops councillor. Contested Cootamundra at 2017 state by-election and 2019 state election.
  Science James Jansson Software developer, epidemiologist and party founder. Contested Kingsford Smith at the 2019 federal election.
  HEMP Michael Balderstone Party leader and perennial candidate. Cannabis legalisation activist and president of the Nimbin Hemp Embassy.
  Independent James Holgate Recruitment consultant.
  National Trevor Hicks Former Queanbeyan–Palerang deputy mayor.
  Liberal Democrats Dean McCrae Chef and party branch coordinator. Contested Goulburn and Lyne at the 2019 state and federal elections, respectively.
  Sustainable Australia Joy Angel Office manager. Contested ACT Senate seat at the 2019 federal election.
  Labor Kristy McBain Mayor of Bega Valley Shire.
  Independent Riccardo Bosi Businessman, veteran and founder of unregistered Australia One party.
  Independent Karen Porter Small business owner, member of unregistered New Liberals party.
  Greens Cathy Griff Bega Valley Shire councillor.
  Christian Democrats Narelle Storey Carer, founder of not-for-profit platform ReStore Australia. Contested Werriwa at the 2019 federal election.
  Australian Federation Jason Potter Business consultant.
  Liberal Fiona Kotvojs Former teacher, scientist and small business operator. Contested Eden-Monaro at the 2019 federal election.

Opinion polling

Eden-Monaro by-election polling
Date Firm Commissioned by Sample Primary vote TPP vote
ALP LIB GRN NAT SFF OTH ALP LIB NAT
30 June 2020 uComms Australia Institute 643 38.1% 37.5% 7.3% 5.0% 4.2% 7.9% 52% 48%
16 June 2020 uComms Australian Forest Products Association 816 6.3% 6.7% 3.6% 52% 48%
15 June 2020 uComms Australia Institute 643 36.5% 29.9% 8.1% 6.1% 6.5% 12.9% 53% 47%
c. 12 June 2020 Internal polling Unconfirmed 600 31% 38% 6% 6% 5% 14%^
12 May 2020 uComms Australia Institute 978 39.8% 34.3% 6.7% 7.3% 11.9%^ 51.1% 48.9%
1 May 2020 Internal polling National Party 1296 35% 21% 8% 30% 6% 48% 52%
30 April 2020 Mike Kelly announces retirement
18 May 2019 election 39.2% 37.0% 8.8% 7.0% 8.1% 50.8% 49.2%
    Notes
    1. ^ 3% One Nation, 11% others/undecided
    2. ^ 6.5% One Nation, 5.4% others/undecided

Results

2020 Eden-Monaro by-election 
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Liberal Fiona Kotvojs 36,388 38.33 +1.33
Labor Kristy McBain 34,073 35.89 −3.28
National Trevor Hicks 6,052 6.38 −0.57
Greens Cathy Griff 5,385 5.67 −3.11
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers Matthew Stadtmiller 5,066 5.34 +5.34
HEMP Michael Balderstone 2,154 2.27 +2.27
  Independent New Liberals Karen Porter 1,218 1.28 +1.28
Science James Jansson 1,071 1.13 +1.13
Sustainable Australia Joy Angel 944 0.99 +0.99
Liberal Democrats Dean McCrae 651 0.69 +0.69
Independent James Holgate 636 0.67 −1.23
Christian Democrats Narelle Storey 614 0.65 −0.52
  Independent Australia One Riccardo Bosi 513 0.54 +0.54
Australian Federation Jason Potter 170 0.18 +0.18
Total formal votes 94,935 93.29 +0.09
Informal votes 6,832 6.71 −0.09
Turnout 101,767 89.08 −4.23
Two-party-preferred result
Labor Kristy McBain 47,835 50.39 −0.46
Liberal Fiona Kotvojs 47,100 49.61 +0.46
Labor hold Swing −0.46
2020 Eden-Monaro By-Election 
Diagram of preference flows at the Eden-Monaro by-election

See also

References

Tags:

2020 Eden-Monaro By-Election Background2020 Eden-Monaro By-Election Key dates2020 Eden-Monaro By-Election Preselection2020 Eden-Monaro By-Election Candidates2020 Eden-Monaro By-Election Opinion polling2020 Eden-Monaro By-Election Results2020 Eden-Monaro By-Election

🔥 Trending searches on Wiki English:

Libs of TikTokLand of BadKagney Linn KarterM1 AbramsKenneth Mitchell (actor)Harry S. TrumanJosh HartnettAlexandre VattemareRed Right Hand (film)Yami GautamTikTokShōgun (1980 miniseries)Bee GeesMukesh AmbaniPete MaravichInterstellar (film)Feyd-RauthaMonica BellucciJames BrolinEurovision Song Contest 2024NapoleonHTTP cookieDakota JohnsonCoco ChanelKareem Abdul-JabbarShaquil BarrettPankaj UdhasHarry R. TrumanNelson MandelaList of Hindi films of 2024Guntur KaaramEverything Everywhere All at OnceDrive-Away DollsBillie EilishWorld Wide WebBattle of Moore's Creek BridgeReba McEntireWord ladderC (programming language)Pablo EscobarWendy WilliamsCheryl HinesPrasanth Nair (astronaut)2024 elections in IndiaTravis KelceBridgit MendlerCzech RepublicCaoimhín KelleherBill ClintonJames ClavellPaul Barnes (footballer)Ambika ModList of footballers with the most goals in a single gameLos Angeles ClippersGeorge VArticle 370 of the Constitution of IndiaHannah WaddinghamMadame WebTokyo Vice (TV series)XXXTentacionInstagramMorrison v. WhiteEmmanuel MacronSkibidi ToiletMark RonsonMillennialsMatthew PerryWarrior (TV series)Dani AlvesDeath of Nex BenedictList of constituencies of the Lok SabhaKevin Von ErichMean Girls (2024 film)The Rookie (TV series)World War IIUkraineTulsi Gabbard🡆 More