2018 Longman By-Election

2018 Longman by-election
The Division of Longman (Qld) in the House of Representatives
Registered	111,652
Turnout	84.26% 7.42
MP before election; Susan Lamb; Labor	Elected MP ; Susan Lamb; Labor

In early counting, within an hour of the close of polls, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation's psephologist Antony Green's electoral computer had predicted Labor to retain the electorate with an increased margin.

The by-election occurred on the same day as four other by-elections for the House of Representatives, colloquially known as Super Saturday. The result in Longman has been noted as helping to accelerate the replacement of Malcolm Turnbull as prime minister and Liberal leader in the following month.

Background

Due to the High Court ruling against Senator Katy Gallagher on 9 May 2018 as part of the ongoing parliamentary eligibility crisis, Lamb and three other MPs in the same situation announced their parliamentary resignations later that day, while the Perth incumbent resigned for family reasons. The Speaker announced on 24 May 2018 that he had scheduled the by-elections to occur on 28 July 2018. Popularly labelled "Super Saturday", the occurrence of five simultaneous federal by-elections is unprecedented in Australian political history. The others are:

Mark Latham, Labor leader between December 2003 and January 2005, voiced a robocall authorised by Pauline Hanson, in an attempt to discourage Labor voting and instead encouraged minor party voting.

The Labor party and Liberal National placed the far right anti immigration Australia First Party last on its preferences.

Key dates

Key dates in relation to the by-election are:

Thursday, 10 May 2018 – Speaker acceptance of resignation
Friday, 15 June 2018 – Issue of writ
Friday, 22 June 2018 – Close of electoral rolls (8pm)
Thursday, 5 July 2018 – Close of nominations (12 noon)
Friday, 6 July 2018 – Declaration of nominations (12 noon)
Tuesday, 10 July 2018 – Start of early voting
Saturday, 28 July 2018 – Polling day (8am to 6pm)
Friday, 10 August 2018 – Last day for receipt of postal votes
Sunday, 23 September 2018 – Last day for return of writs

Candidates

Candidates (11) in ballot paper order
Party		Candidate	Background
	Liberal Democrats	Lloyd Russell	Business consultant.
	Australia First	Jim Saleam	Party leader. Contested Lindsay at the 2016 election and Cook at the 2013 election.
	Democratic Labour	Gregory Bell	Truck driver.
	Independent	Jackie Perkins	Self-employed mobile veterinarian.
	Science	James Noonan	Criminology and criminal justice graduate.
	One Nation	Matthew Stephen	Caboolture businessman. Ran in Sandgate at the 2017 state election.
	People	John Reece	Ran as an independent candidate in Longman at the 2010 federal election.
	Labor	Susan Lamb	Previous MP for Longman elected at the 2016 federal election.
	Liberal National	Trevor Ruthenberg	One-term MP for Kallangur elected at the 2012 state election.
	Country	Blair Verrier	Certified Practising Accountant (CPA).
	Greens	Gavin Behrens	Caboolture father and IT professional. Ran in Morayfield at the 2017 state election.

Polling

**Longman by-election polling**
Date	Firm	Commissioned by	Sample	Primary vote						TPP vote
				ALP	LNP	ONP	GRN	OTH	UND	ALP	LNP
24−26 July 2018	Newspoll	The Australian	1015	40%	36%	14%	5%	5%	−	51%	49%
17−19 July 2018	ReachTEL	Courier Mail	578	35.8%	37.9%	13.9%	(OTH)	4.3%	3.9%	49%	51%
26 June 2018	ReachTEL	Courier Mail	814	39.0%	35.5%	14.7%	(OTH)	6.6%	4.1%	49%	51%
21 June 2018	ReachTEL	Australia Institute	727	39.1%	34.9%	14.7%	4.4%	3.7%	3.2%	50%	50%
2 June 2018	ReachTEL	Sky News	>800	35%	38%	(OTH)	2%	14%	11%	48%	52%
10 May 2018	ReachTEL	Australia Institute	1277	32.5%	36.7%	15.1%	4.9%	6.4%	4.5%	47%	53%
2016 election				35.4%	39.0%	9.4%	4.4%	11.8%		50.8%	49.2%

Results

Longman by-election: 28 July 2018
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Labor	Susan Lamb	35,203	39.84	+4.45
	Liberal National	Trevor Ruthenberg	26,170	29.61	−9.40
	One Nation	Matthew Stephen	14,061	15.91	+6.50
	Greens	Gavin Behrens	4,264	4.83	+0.44
	Independent	Jackie Perkins	2,379	2.69	+2.69
	Liberal Democrats	Lloyd Russell	1,762	1.99	+1.99
	Country	Blair Verrier	1,387	1.57	+1.57
	Democratic Labour	Gregory Bell	1,043	1.18	+1.18
	Science	James Noonan	970	1.10	+1.10
	Australia First	Jim Saleam	709	0.80	+0.80
	People's Party	John Reece	420	0.48	+0.48
Total formal votes			88,368	93.93	+2.46
Informal votes			5,707	6.07	−2.46
Turnout			94,075	84.26	−7.42
Two-party-preferred result
	Labor	Susan Lamb	48,116	54.45	+3.66
	Liberal National	Trevor Ruthenberg	40,252	45.55	−3.66
	Labor hold		Swing	+3.66

References

External links

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